Fintech evolving: The Law of Accelerating Returns
AHMED TARABICHI 04/23/20 08:00EST KEYNOTE SPEECH TO ANGEL INVESTORS @ W 54 BROADWAY SHERATON HOTEL RM 204 BENZINGA BLOCKCHAIN FORUM
DELIVERED A KEYNOTE SPEECH AT (BENZINGA BLOCKCHAIN FORUM) ORGANIZERS WITH A ROOM FILLED WITH JOURNALISTS TAKING NOTES � — FELT A BIT WEIRD.
NOT THE FIRST TIME BENZINGA HE USED THIS LOCATION, ONLY THIS WAS A MUCH LESS FORMAL EVENT THAN THE ONE I ATTENDED TWO SUMMERS AGO @ W 54TH ST 04/23/19 07:30 AM — SO I’M BREAKING A CONTRACT AND I’LL HAVE VIDEO SOON TO BE RELEASED. I’M DOING THIS KNOWING I’LL BE SUED AND IDGAF. I’VE HAD A CHANGE OF HEART AND I KNOW THE RAMIFICATIONS WILL BE PAINFUL BUT LONG STORY SHORT I SOLD THE TRANSCRIPTS TO BE PUBLISHED IN INVESTORPLACE.COM & MARKETWATCH AFTER I SOLD A COPY OF THE TRANSCRIPT (ALONGSIDE ITS TRADEMARK & CONTENTS) FOR AN UNDISCLOSED AMOUNT WHICH IS BOTH HUMBLING AND GENEROUS BUT AFTER SOME AFTERTHOUGHT, IT JUST OCCURRED TO ME I DELIVERED A KEYNOTE SPEECH WITH THE OVERALL THEME BEING FINTECH IS MASKED UNDER THE GUISE OF TECH AND SLOWLY BUT SURELY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS , FINANCIERS, BROKERS BANKS AND LENDERS ARE GOING TO WISH THEY MAJORED IN COMPUTER SCIENCE INSTEAD OF GETTING THAT MBA IN FINANCE AS I DIVE INTO DETAILS —
STARTING WITH THE HISTORY OF TRADING BACK TO 1000 BC, BANKING INFRASTRUCTURES BACKED BY GOLD STANDARDS WERE ISSUED AND STOCKS (IN THEIR EARLIEST CONCEPTION) WERE MORE LIKE WHAT WE VIEW AS BONDS TODAY: GIVEN THE HOLY ROMAN EMPIRE (THE FIRST EMPIRE/CIVILIZATION TO ADOPT THE CONCEPT OF BANKS & LENDING, AS WELL AS INFLATIONARY FUTURES & INTEREST RATE —
STOCKS BEGAN AS NOTHING MORE THAN IOUS FROM THE ROMAN SENATE WHEN (NOT DISIMULAR FROM WHAT IS OCCURRING TO THE US AS WE SPEAK) LOW WAGES AND HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE COUPLED WITH A FLAGRANT DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE NOBILITY AND THE PEASANTRY (A SYSTEM OF CHECKS AND BALANCES THAT KEPT THE ROMAN SENATE & DEMORACY INTACT WAS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A BUREAUCRACY AND THUS BORN THE CONCEPT OF CREDIT) AND SO A HIERARCHY PLAGUED BY CORRUPTION FORMED A SORT OF PONZI SCHEME WHERE THE SENATE BEGAN USING TAXES FROM THE WORKERS TO PAY THE KNIGHTS, NOT NOBLEMAN (YET A STEP HIGHER THAN PEASANTS) AND IN RETURN THE KNIGHTS ENSURED PEACEFUL (ALBEIT CORRUPT) DIPLOMACY.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE ROMAN EMPIRE WAS EXPEDITED AS THE GOLD STANDARD MEANT THAT A WEIGHTED MARKET CAP WOULD CREATE A FIXED SUPPLY AND EVENTUALLY THERE WOULD BE A TURNING POINT WHERE THE IOUS HANDED OUT TO PAY KNIGHTS AND EVIDENTLY WORKERS TOO WOULD BE NULL AND VOID AND THIS IS WHAT LED TO (MORE THAN ONE COUP) BUT I DIGRESS —
THIS IS JUST A BRIEF (this == my idea of “brief” lol) SUMMARY OF HOW I BEGAN THE SPEECH AND USED METAPHORS, EXAMPLES OF REAL WORLD SCENARIOS AND PROOF USING FUNDAMENTALS HISTORICAL TRENDS, THE GODDAMN $AMZN STOCK PRICE BEING ALMOST AS MUCH AS THE ENTIRE SPX500 & USE THE “ANDREW YANG” ARGUMENT TO BOLSTER THE EVIDENCE — BUT IF YOU WANT TO READ THE SPEECH HERE IT IS BELOW. I WAS A DAMN FOOL TO SAY YES TO A PAYCHECK WITHOUT ANY THOUGHT. THE WHOLE REASON I PREPPED AND GAVE THE SPEECH WAS SO I COULD HAVE IT PUBLISHED AND EXPAND MY PROFILE — NOT SO (YET AGAIN) SOMEONE WHO DOESN’T KNOW WHAT THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT CAN SLAP THEIR NAME ON MY WORK AND CALL IT THEIR OWN.
IT WAS FLATTERING AT FIRST; NOW IT’S JUST ANNOYING AND DISRESPECTFUL. I SIGNED AN NDA / GAG ORDER. I’D RATHER FACE LITIGATION AND PAY EVERY PENNY BACK IN COURT THEN LET THEM PUBLISH MY WORK UNDER THEIR NAMESAKE. I’M SURE THEY’RE DOING IT AS WE SPEAK.
SO WITHOUT FURTHER ADIEU; HERE’S MY SPEECH (which has since been edited and modified many times contingent on where/when I’m giving it):
Please ignore any preferential/personal notations I left for myself. Giving speeches is much harder than it seems. Hence the “self-prompter” to remind myself to drink water, clear my throat, adjust posture/volume, etc. Although it is one of those things you get better at with each time you do it…unequivocally.
*Adjust mic stand water and posture*
THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS:
In the 21st century we will see almost a thousand-times the technological advances we saw in the previous century.
WHAT ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE AMERICAN POPULATION UNDERSTANDS, IS THAT THE KEY INGREDIENTS OF OUR MODERN, DIGITIZED, AND COMPUTERIZED WORLD ARE EXPLODING IN POWER AND SPEED. THIS IS CHANGING OUR WORLD AT EVER-INCREASING RATES, AND IN WAYS MOST PEOPLE CAN’T EVEN COMPREHEND RIGHT NOW. AND IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO WHAT IS CALLED…
: “THE LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS.”
***PLAY SLIDE WITH MOORE QUOTE***
The term was first coined by Ray Kurzweil, the most famous “futurist” and tech expert in America. Kurzweil worked as the director of engineering at Google… and won our country’s top technology award (the National Medal of Technology and Innovation). Time Magazine named Kurzweil one of the “16 revolutionaries who made America.” Inc. Magazine called him, “Edison’s rightful heir.” The concept behind The Law of Accelerating Returns is a bit complex… but it’s worth taking a few minutes to understand, because this simple concept…
- Explains why some companies are growing so quickly, and making so much money so fast, compared to how long it took years ago.
• Explains why so many well-known companies will collapse and even go bankrupt in the next few years.
- Explains why the wealth gap in America is so big… why it’s getting bigger… and why it will get even bigger still in the years to come.
• And most importantly: This simple concept provides you with a roadmap for how YOU can make a lot of money, and avoid major losses, in the very near future.
Here’s how it works…
As Kurzweil explains, technology does not progress in a linear, step-by-step manner: Instead, the speed of progress… and the speed at which people adopt new technologies, actually accelerates (dramatically) over the years. In other words, technology progresses “exponentially.” I know that’s a little bit confusing, so let me show you an example…
pause for 15 seconds, sip water and take a deep breath* DONT LOOK AT THE AUDIENCE — LOOK THROUGH THEM *sarcasm*
*sarcasm* Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Moore’s Law.” *pause for awkward silence and then comic relief* if >=1/3 audience raises a hand then joke “liars…”
If ≤= 1/3 audience raises hand then then joke “don’t worry, me neither until about a week ago…. good thing I’m a fast learner; they say the best ideas come from the time you spend using the toilet & whoever said that was weird as hell. I wonder to myself if he observed this conclusion or just based it on his own experience as a t being — — as most “they say” which, as we all know is the most reputable source for researching facts nowadays. Nobody beats “they” but I digress… *pause for laughter*
In all seriousness…observation is the next logical step in the scientific method and that’s how Gordon Moore concluded the flint and tinder spark leading to the ember and small flicker of golden financial & technology theory & deduced as early as 1967 that automation would evidently turn finance into tech and just like commerce, dating, and so many things we used to do in social settings — Moore envisioned a future where technology would render wall st obsolete.
It’s an observation made in the late 1960s by Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel. Moore said the number of transistors we could fit on a microchip would double every two years, which would rapidly boost computer power. Few people believed Moore, but he was exactly right, as you can see from the chart below…
*if projector � then play slide if no projector have one copy of each document passed out before speech begins*
That’s over a million times improvement… in just 16 years! And remember, these technologies improve exponentially… so in just a few years, today’s computing power and technologies will look completely antiquated. Also, it’s not just recent technologies that progress exponentially… It’s all human technology and innovation, throughout recorded time. As Kurzweil says…the first technological steps in human history were sharp edges, fire, the wheel, etc. But these things took tens of thousands of years to develop. For people living in those ancient eras, there was little noticeable change; by 1,000 A.D., technological progress was much faster — a technological paradigm shift required only a century or two.
Today, the acceleration of our technological progress allows companies to operate with just a fraction of the number of employees businesses used to require. In other words, wealth is being concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. Just consider these incredible numbers… Back in 1964, AT&T had more than 750,000 employees… But in 2017, Google was a bigger and far richer company than AT&T with 92% fewer employees sharing the wealth. Or look at the old-school company, Hilton Hotels… It has about 170,000 employees… which helped generate about $9 billion in revenue last year. That’s about $53,000 per employee. But I estimate tech upstart Airbnb generates five-times more money per employee than Hilton! Soon, Airbnb will be making more money than Hilton Hotels… but will most likely do it with a 90% or greater reduction in labor. In 2012, IBM had more than 400,000 employees… but today Microsoft has one-third that number of employees and makes about $50 billion more per year.
Stay until 10:30AM until every prospective network contact has your business card.
Peace & Love
Enjoy the read all. (of the transcript anyway)
Speech was given at Benzinga Blockchain Stocktwits event: Sheraton Hotel, NYC: @ W 54TH ST 04/23/19 07:30 AM
Transcript re-posted (for the third time) on 3/8/22.
- Ahmed T. ❤